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BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fred Advisory Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FRED CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL 
CUBA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 80.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Tropical Storm Warning for the Middle and Upper Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef has been discontinued,
including Florida Bay.
 
The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge to the Dry Tortugas
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.
 
Interests in Cuba and in the Florida peninsula and Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of Fred.  Watches could be
required for portions of the Florida panhandle on Saturday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fred
was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 80.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h).   A
west-northwestward motion is expected to begin overnight.  A turn
toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, and this general
motion should continue through early Monday.  On the forecast track,
Fred is expected to continue moving near the north coast of central
Cuba tonight, pass near or west of the lower Florida Keys on
Saturday, and move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Saturday 
night and Sunday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through early Saturday. After 
that, slow strengthening is forecast, and Fred could become a 
tropical storm again by late Saturday or Saturday night.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb (29.92 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.
 
RAINFALL:  Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
 
Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8
inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding.
 
Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of
5 inches.
 
Tonight through Monday, 3 to 6 inches of rain is anticipated across
the Keys, southern and central Florida north towards the Big Bend,
with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Heavy rainfall could lead
to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new
minor flooding across the western Florida Peninsula and exacerbate
ongoing minor to isolated moderate flooding in northern Florida.
 
From Sunday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into
inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central
Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the
area.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
warning area across the Florida Keys on Saturday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Fred are expected to spread across
portions of the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba through
tonight. These swells could reach the Florida Keys and southern
Florida by early Saturday and increase along the west coast of
Florida Saturday night and Sunday.  Please consult products from
your local weather office for more details.
 
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may be possible starting Saturday 
afternoon across portions of central and southern Florida.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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