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Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202020
100 PM PST Thu Nov 05 2020
Deep convection associated with Odalys has largely dissipated over
the past 6-9 h with just a remnant swirl of low clouds surrounding
the center. Satellite estimates from SAB and TAFB continue to
decrease and a recent ASCAT pass confirmed that the wind field has
begun to spin down, with maximum sustained winds near 35 kt.
As anticipated, the combination of high southwesterly vertical wind
shear greater than 30 kt and dry mid-level air around 40 percent as
diagnosed from ECMWF-SHIPS guidance has lead to a collapse of deep
central convection. Even though sea surface temperatures under
Odalys remain marginally warm around 26 C, vertical wind shear and
mid-level dry air are forecast to become even more hostile over the
next 24 h. Therefore, the latest official forecast now anticipates
Odalys to become a remnant low in 24 h. Degeneration to a remnant
low could occur as quickly as this evening if organized deep
convection does not redevelop soon.
The initial motion of the cyclone is estimated near 280/6 kt, and a
due westward motion is expected within the next few hours. Odalys is
now a shallow cyclone, and will primarily be steered by low-level
northeasterly trade wind flow, gradually bending from a west to
southwest heading over the next 24-36 h. The NHC forecast track
shows a slightly sharper turn to the the southwest now that the
cyclone has become more shallow, but the official track remains near
the track guidance consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 18.5N 123.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 18.3N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 17.7N 125.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/0600Z 17.0N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/1800Z 16.4N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 08/0600Z 15.9N 127.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
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