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Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
800 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2020
There are a few convective cells located more than 60 n mi to the
west-northwest of Norbert's center, but for the most part, organized
deep convection ceased around the time of the previous advisory.
Assuming a spin down of the circulation since the afternoon ASCAT
pass, and based on lower satellite estimates, Norbert's estimated
intensity is now 25 kt. Further weakening is expected due to cool
waters and moderate-to-strong shear, and if deep convection does not
return soon, Norbert will degenerate into a remnant low overnight.
Global model fields indicate that the remnant low will open up into
a trough and dissipate just off the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula in about 24 hours.
Norbert has slowed down a bit, now that its shallower circulation
is not being influenced by the steering around a mid-level low to
its southwest as much as it was earlier today. The current motion
is toward the north-northwest (330/12 kt), and Norbert is expected
to slow down further until the time it dissipates. The updated NHC
track forecast lies on top of the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0300Z 25.7N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 26.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW