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Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
300 PM MDT Thu Oct 08 2020
 
Norbert has a ragged and disorganized appearance, with asymmetrical 
convection bursting intermittently around the center. Satellite 
imagery suggests that the system is now experiencing some 
southeasterly shear. A recent ASCAT overpass sampled peak winds of 
24 kt, so the advisory intensity will remain 25 kt.   

The current environment surrounding Norbert is not forecast to 
change much over the next few days. Therefore, only minor 
fluctuations in intensity are expected to occur during that time. By 
72 h, model guidance is indicating that the cyclone should encounter 
a more stable atmosphere, which would limit convection and cause 
Norbert to weaken. The cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a 
remnant low devoid of deep convection by day 4, but it is possible 
that the deep convection could dissipate long enough for Norbert to 
be declared a remnant low before that time. Another plausible 
scenario is that Norbert's low level circulation dissipates and 
opens up into a surface trough later in the forecast period. The 
only change to the latest NHC forecast is that no further 
strengthening is indicated, which is agreement with every available 
intensity model except the SHIPS guidance.
 
Norbert has barely budged since early this morning due to a lack of 
steering currents. A weak mid-level ridge is forecast to build to 
the northeast of the cyclone Friday through Saturday, which should 
cause Norbert to eventually move west-northwest to northwest. By 
Sunday, however, a mid-upper level low digging across northern 
Mexico should weaken the ridge, and the model guidance has trended 
toward Norbert once again meandering for a couple of days. By day 5, 
low-level ridging building to the northwest of Norbert should cause 
the shallow system to begin a westward motion. Due to the lack of 
run-to-run model consistency in the 3-5 day period, that portion of 
the track forecast is of low confidence. The NHC forecast track was 
changed little through 48 h, then is slower at 60-96 h to reflect 
the second collapse of the steering currents. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 13.1N 106.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 13.0N 106.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 13.3N 106.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 13.9N 107.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 14.5N 107.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 14.8N 107.6W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 14.9N 107.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 15.0N 107.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  13/1800Z 15.1N 109.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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