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Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
900 PM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020
 
Tropical Depression Norbert is still struggling to maintain any 
deep convection near its center. Satellite imagery indicates the 
low-level center remains exposed, and a small convective burst 
noted in recent infrared imagery is already collapsing. The initial 
intensity is perhaps generously held at 30 kt based on a blend of 
recent objective satellite estimates and Dvorak classifications 
from TAFB and SAB. Overnight scatterometer data should help further 
assess whether additional weakening has occurred.
 
Norbert continues to meander within a weak steering pattern, and 
its center has drifted southeast of the previous advisory position. 
Little movement is expected during the next 12 h, but Norbert 
should begin slowly moving west-southwestward from 12-36 h. Then, 
the cyclone should move west-northwestward or northwestward at 
around 5 kt for the remainder of the forecast period as a mid-level 
ridge builds to the north and northeast of Norbert. No significant 
changes were made to the NHC track forecast with this advisory.

Although current satellite trends do not bode well for Norbert, the 
system remains embedded in a favorable environment of warm water 
and light vertical wind shear. The latest SHIPS guidance suggests 
the deep-layer shear will increase slightly during the next 24 h, 
which combined with any more dry air intrusions could cause Norbert 
to degenerate into a remnant low. On the other hand, increasing 
mid-level moisture and weaker shear beyond this time period could 
allow for a convective burst capable of getting Norbert back to 
minimal tropical storm strength. Given the mixed signals for small 
intensity fluctuations in either direction, the official intensity 
forecast holds Norbert's intensity steady for the next several 
days. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 13.2N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 13.2N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 13.1N 107.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 13.0N 107.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 13.2N 108.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  10/1200Z 13.9N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 14.9N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Berg
 
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