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Tropical Storm NORBERT

Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020
Norbert has recovered somewhat from the dry air intrusion that 
occurred last night. A new burst of deep convection developed 
near the center early this morning, but the associated cloud tops 
are beginning to warm and the convection is becoming displaced over 
the northeastern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity 
is being held at 35 kt, and is based off the Dvorak intensity 
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. 

The storm is struggling to stay organized despite being over warm 
waters and in an environment of relatively low shear. By Thursday, 
the SHIPS guidance suggests that the shear will increase to around 
10-15 kt. This shear, along with occasional dry air intrusions 
similar to one experienced last night, could gradually weaken the 
system. On the other hand, the warm waters could counteract the 
moderately negative environmental factors. The latest NHC forecast 
still favors the latter scenario, and shows Norbert remaining a 
35-kt tropical storm throughout the forecast period. This intensity 
forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is a compromise 
between the SHIPS guidance and the model consensus. 

The initial motion is stationary, although the exact center location 
has been difficult to pinpoint this morning. The steering flow is 
forecast to remain very weak over the next couple of days, and most 
of the models show little movement through tonight followed by a 
slow westward drift Wednesday through Thursday. By late this week, a 
mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the north to northeast of 
the cyclone, which should force Norbert on a west-northwestward 
track. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one 
through 72 h, but was adjusted a little north after that time due to 
a northward shift in the guidance. However, the new track forecast 
remains south of the consensus aids late in the forecast period.
INIT  07/1500Z 14.2N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 14.1N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 14.0N 107.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 13.9N 107.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 13.8N 107.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  10/0000Z 14.1N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 14.9N 109.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 17.5N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
Forecaster Latto