ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020
900 AM MDT Wed Oct 07 2020
Norbert has recovered somewhat from the dry air intrusion that
occurred last night. A new burst of deep convection developed
near the center early this morning, but the associated cloud tops
are beginning to warm and the convection is becoming displaced over
the northeastern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity
is being held at 35 kt, and is based off the Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.
The storm is struggling to stay organized despite being over warm
waters and in an environment of relatively low shear. By Thursday,
the SHIPS guidance suggests that the shear will increase to around
10-15 kt. This shear, along with occasional dry air intrusions
similar to one experienced last night, could gradually weaken the
system. On the other hand, the warm waters could counteract the
moderately negative environmental factors. The latest NHC forecast
still favors the latter scenario, and shows Norbert remaining a
35-kt tropical storm throughout the forecast period. This intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is a compromise
between the SHIPS guidance and the model consensus.
The initial motion is stationary, although the exact center location
has been difficult to pinpoint this morning. The steering flow is
forecast to remain very weak over the next couple of days, and most
of the models show little movement through tonight followed by a
slow westward drift Wednesday through Thursday. By late this week, a
mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the north to northeast of
the cyclone, which should force Norbert on a west-northwestward
track. The latest NHC track forecast is near the previous one
through 72 h, but was adjusted a little north after that time due to
a northward shift in the guidance. However, the new track forecast
remains south of the consensus aids late in the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 14.2N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 14.1N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 14.0N 107.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 13.9N 107.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 13.8N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 14.1N 108.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 14.9N 109.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 17.5N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Latto
NNNN