ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Norbert Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192020
300 AM MDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Deep convection has persisted overnight in association with former 
Tropical Depression Nineteen-E, forming a well-defined central 
dense overcast over the center. Additionally, a 0448 UTC ASCAT-B 
overpass showed a compact, circular wind field with at least 35-40 
kt in the eastern semicircle of the system. Thus, the initial 
intensity has been raised to 40 kt, and the depression has been 
upgraded to Tropical Storm Norbert.

Norbert is presently moving northwestward at 6 kt, steered by a 
weakening mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico. The storm 
is expected to slow down later today as the steering currents 
collapse, and Norbert will likely meander offshore for several days 
before resuming a slow west-northwestward motion late in the 
forecast period. There remains above average spread in the track 
guidance given the weak steering flow, and the NHC track forecast 
lies fairly close to the consensus aids.

Norbert is a compact storm over very warm waters, and the limited 
deep-layer shear it is experiencing should allow for steady 
strengthening over the next couple of days. The global guidance 
continues to struggle with this small storm, so the latest NHC 
intensity forecast trends well above the consensus aids and closer 
to the statistical-dynamical SHIPS guidance. Given the very 
favorable environmental conditions, it is certainly possible that 
Norbert could intensify even more than forecast. By day 3 and 
beyond, vertical wind shear is expected to increase, which could 
cause the storm's intensity to level off through the end of the 
forecast period. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 13.7N 106.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 14.0N 106.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 14.1N 106.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 14.3N 106.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 14.5N 106.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 14.9N 107.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  11/0600Z 15.5N 109.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Stewart
 
NNNN