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Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
200 PM PDT Tue Oct 06 2020
 
Marie's center remains exposed, with limited shower activity
displaced more than 110 n mi northeast of the center.  Consequently,
the system is poised to become a remnant low tonight if organized 
convection doesn't redevelop near the center of circulation.  The 
initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt, and is in best agreement 
with a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates and in 
deference to this morning's scatterometer data which indicated 
numerous 40-kt winds.  Marie should continue to gradually spin 
down during the 36 hours while moving west-northwestward over 24C 
sea surface temperatures and through an extremely inhibiting 
surrounding environment.  Through the remaining portion of the 
period, the post-tropical remnant low should turn westward within 
the low-level easterlies and open up into a trough of low pressure 
Friday.  Only a small along-track adjustment was made to the NHC 
forecast in order to agree more with the HFIP Corrected Consensus 
Approach model.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 22.4N 135.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 22.8N 136.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/1800Z 23.2N 137.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  08/0600Z 23.4N 138.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/1800Z 23.4N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  09/0600Z 23.4N 139.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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