ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
500 AM HST Mon Oct 05 2020
 
The remains of the deep convection associated with Marie continues 
to get further displaced from the exposed low-level center due 
strong upper-level westerly winds, with the gap now over 100 n mi 
between those two features. The various satellite intensity 
estimates suggest that the current intensity may only be 45 kt. 
However, due to fair number of 55-kt wind vectors on the ASCAT 
overpass early this morning, the intensity is conservatively being 
lowered to 50 kt for this advisory. Marie is expected to weaken over 
the next few days in a hostile environment of 30 plus kt of wind 
shear, over SSTs cooler that 25 degrees C, surrounded by a dry and 
stable airmass. With the convection now displaced so far from the 
center, and no regeneration of convection near the center 
anticipated, Marie is now forecast to become a remnant low by 
Tuesday night. This could happen even sooner if the current trend 
continues. 
 
Marie continues to move west-northwestward at about 8 kt around a 
mid-level ridge to its north. A turn to the west is expected in a 
couple of days as the cyclone becomes a more shallow system. The 
latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the previous one, 
and is near the various track consensus forecasts. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/1500Z 21.1N 131.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 21.5N 133.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 22.1N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 22.7N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1200Z 23.1N 137.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  08/0000Z 23.3N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1200Z 23.3N 138.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/1200Z 22.9N 140.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
NNNN