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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020
800 AM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020
Conventional satellite imagery reveals an increasingly apparent
asymmetric/vertical tilt due to persistent west-southwesterly
shear. The surface center is beginning to become exposed and is
now near the western edge of the deep convective mass. The initial
intensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory and is based on a
compromise of the available subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates. Weakening should continue rather quickly
through the forecast period while the shear magnitude increases
with time and the cyclone traverses cooler oceanic surface
temperatures. Marie should degenerate to a post-tropical remnant
low in 3 days, or less, and this is in agreement with the majority
of the global/regional and statistical guidance. The intensity
forecast is near the IVCN intensity consensus and above the ECMWF
and GFS Decay SHIPS which actually show dissipation in less than 4
days.
Maria's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/6
kt, within the mid-tropospheric steering flow provided by a
subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the cyclone. Marie
should continue moving in either a west-northwestward or
northwestward motion through the remainder of forecast period with
some reduction in forward speed, day 3 and beyond. The NHC
forecast track has been adjusted a little bit south of the previous
advisory after the 24 hour period in order to be closer to the
various multi-model consensus aids and to conform more with a motion
typical of a shallower, vertically limited system moving through the
trade wind flow.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 20.3N 128.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.7N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 21.3N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 22.0N 132.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 22.7N 133.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/0000Z 23.4N 135.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 24.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z 24.8N 136.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1200Z 25.3N 137.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Roberts
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