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Hurricane Marie Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182020
800 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020
 
Although Marie still has an impressive and very symetric appearance, 
cloud tops associated with the huricane have gradually warmed since 
this afternoon and its eye became less well-defined for a brief 
period earlier this evening. The cause of this recent trend is not 
immediately clear since Marie is still located within a favorable 
low-shear, high SST environment, and two microwave passses near 00Z 
(SSMIS and SSMI) did not show any sign of an eyewall replacement 
cycle. Whatever the reason, it has caused intensity estimates to 
decrease a little since the last advisory, but not enough to justify 
lowering the intensity at this time. The intial intensity therefore 
remains 115 kt for this advisory. With a range of estimates from 
90 kt to 127 kt, there is a lot of uncertainty in this assessment.
 
Although Marie is located in a favorable environment for now, that
won't last much longer. The hurricane is moving toward colder
waters and it should begin to experience a large increase in wind
shear within the next day or so. The guidance unsurprisingly
forecasts that weakening will occur, possibly at a very rapid rate.
The NHC forecast is on the high side of the intensity guidance, but
still shows Marie becoming a tropical storm within 60 h and a
depression by the end of the 5 day period. No changes of note were
made to the offficial intensity forecast.
 
Marie has turned northwestward, and should continue on that general
heading for most of the weekend as it moves along the southwest
periphary of a mid-level ridge. A slight expansion of the ridge
could steer Marie more west-northwestward for a day or two after
that. Around day 5, a large deep-layer trough should cause the
cyclone to turn nearly northward. While there is considerable
spread in the track guidance, limiting confidence in the specifics
of the track forecast, every global model forecasts that general
evolution. The NHC track forecast is very close to the model
consensus and the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/0300Z 17.5N 125.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  03/1200Z 18.3N 126.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  04/0000Z 19.2N 127.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 20.0N 128.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 20.6N 129.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 21.1N 131.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 21.6N 132.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 22.5N 134.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 24.0N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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