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Tropical Depression Julio Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152020
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 06 2020
Julio is losing organization. A small area of deep convection
remains near the assumed center, which is best identified by SSMIS
microwave data a few hours ago. However, Socorro Island, located
about 30 miles south of the center, never showed any westerly winds.
While it is possible the system has already opened up into a
trough, advisories are being continued on the assumption that the
island missed the small system's circulation. The initial wind
speed is set to 30 kt due to the decay in overall satellite
The depression is moving westward at a slower speed than before,
roughly 11 kt. This motion is expected tomorrow at a slower
speed as a ridge breaks down to the north of the cyclone.
Afterwards, since the tropical cyclone is so small, a larger
surface low to the southwest of the system seems likely to weaken
Julio and then absorb the tropical cyclone in a couple of days.
Thus the track forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, and
the new intensity forecast is reduced as well. A plausible
alternative scenario is that overnight scatterometer data will show
that the system has already degenerated into a surface trough.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 19.4N 111.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 19.5N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 19.5N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 19.3N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH