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Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122020
300 AM MDT Thu Aug 20 2020
Recent microwave overpasses and conventional enhanced infrared
satellite imagery indicate that just a fragment of Genevieve's
eyewall remains in the northeast quadrant. Subjective satellite
intensity estimates have once again decreased as well as an earlier
SATCON analysis from UW-CIMSS. Consequently, the initial intensity
has been lowered to 70 kt based on a blend of these data.
Genevieve will continue traversing gradually cooler oceanic
temperatures today and Friday which will aid in additional spin
down of the cyclone. Afterward, Genevieve is forecast to move
over much cooler SSTs, less than 25 degrees Celsius, which should
induce a swifter weakening trend, and ultimately, cause the cyclone
to degenerate into a remnant low in 60 hours. The new NHC
intensity forecast is based primarily on the HFIP Corrected
Consensus Intensity model through 48 hours, then is adjusted
to agree more with the global model guidance.
The initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or
330/6 kt, but a turn toward the northwest is forecast today. This
general motion should continue through the remainder of the
forecast period. On this track, the center of Genevieve will pass
just to the southwest or west of the southern portion of the Baja
California peninsula later today. The updated forecast is near the
middle of the large-scale and regional model envelope, and just to
the right of the previous advisory track.
Genevieve's wind radii were adjusted based on a 0422 UTC METOP-A/B
1. The center of Genevieve is forecast to pass just west of the Baja
California peninsula today. Tropical storm conditions are
occurring over southern Baja California Sur and should continue
today. Hurricane conditions will continue for the next several
hours within the Hurricane Warning area.
2. Heavy rainfall from Genevieve may lead to life-threatening flash
flooding and mudslides across portions of far southern Baja
California Sur through today.
3. Large swells generated by Genevieve will affect portions of
the west-central coast Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja
California peninsula through Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/0900Z 22.5N 110.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 23.3N 111.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 24.4N 112.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 25.5N 114.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 26.7N 116.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 22/1800Z 27.9N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 23/0600Z 28.8N 120.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 24/0600Z 30.4N 121.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW