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Tropical Depression Fausto Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112020
800 PM PDT Sun Aug 16 2020
 
Deep convection continues to decrease near Fausto, with only a small 
area remaining near and south of the center.  Satellite estimates 
are dropping and support making Fausto a 30-kt tropical depression 
on this advisory, which also matches the 25-30 kt ASCAT data from 
earlier.  The cyclone is rapidly moving over cold water, and should 
cease producing deep convection overnight.  Thus further weakening 
is likely, and remnant low status is expected on Monday, with a slow 
decay over cold waters thereafter as shown in the global models.

Fausto is moving northwestward at around 15 kt along the 
southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The storm should turn 
westward tomorrow and south-of-west on Tuesday due to the 
orientation of the lower- to middle-level ridge. The official 
forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and is not far 
from the eastern Pacific model consensus aid, TVCE. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0300Z 23.1N 122.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 24.1N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  18/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  18/1200Z 24.5N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  19/0000Z 24.0N 131.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  19/1200Z 23.0N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
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