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Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112020
800 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2020
The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring well offshore
the Baja California peninsula has become better defined during the
past several hours, and it appears to have a well-defined center.
Since deep convection has persisted near the center, it now meets
the criteria of a tropical depression. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt based on 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB.
The depression is already nearing cooler waters, and it is expected
to cross the 26 C isotherm in about 12 hours. These cooler waters
combined with a drier environment should prevent strengthening in
the short term, and cause the cyclone to become a remnant low in 36
to 48 hours, or maybe even sooner than that. The global models
show the remnant low opening into a trough in 3 to 4 days.
The initial motion is quite uncertain given that the system has only
recently become well defined, but my best guess is
north-northwestward at 10 kt. A strong mid-level ridge situated
over the southwestern U.S. should cause the cyclone to turn
northwestward soon and continue in that direction for the next
couple of days. After that time, when the system is likely a
shallow remnant low, a turn to the west is predicted as it is
is steered by the low-level flow. The track forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0300Z 18.4N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 20.3N 119.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 22.5N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 24.0N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 24.9N 127.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 18/1200Z 25.3N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z 24.7N 131.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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