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TROPICAL STORM ELIDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092020
0900 UTC SUN AUG 09 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.1W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.1W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 103.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.8N 106.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.7N 113.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.6N 116.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 21.9N 123.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 104.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 
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