ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092020
200 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020
 
Elida's last remaining deep convection dissipated just after the
issuance of the previous advisory, brought on by cold ocean water
of only 22-23 degrees Celsius.  Of the two ASCAT passes near the
cyclone today, neither caught the likely area of strongest winds.
Therefore, the maximum winds are lowered to 45 kt based on a blend
of subjective estimates between 45-55 kt and objective numbers
between 30-40 kt.  Cold water and increasing shear should continue
Elida's quick weakening trend, and the cyclone is expected to
degenerate into a remnant low by tonight, barring the unlikely
chance that deep convection redevelops.  The remnant low is then
forecast to dissipate in 48 hours in accordance with global model
guidance.
 
The initial motion is still west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt.  A
low- to mid-level trough extending southwest of California, which
has caused a break in the subtropical ridge, is expected to allow
Elida to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward soon.
This forecast reasoning has not changed, however one change to the
new NHC track forecast is that it is not as fast as is being shown
by the model trackers.  Global model fields suggest that
Elida's low- to mid-level circulation will get pulled northward by
increasing shear (which is reflected by the model trackers),
leaving the surface circulation to the south.  Given this
discrepancy, the NHC forecast is to the south of most of the
guidance to account for the actual location of the surface center.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  12/2100Z 23.7N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  13/0600Z 24.5N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  13/1800Z 25.8N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  14/0600Z 27.2N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
NNNN