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Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020
400 AM CDT Sun Aug 09 2020
Deep convection associated with the cyclone has increased during the
past several hours, particularly in a band in the southeast
quadrant. Late-arriving ASCAT data valid around 0330 UTC revealed
that the cyclone's low-level wind structure was still somewhat
elongated in a SSW-NNE orientation. That said, the ASCAT data also
showed a few believable 30-35 kt vectors in the northeast quadrant
of the cyclone. That supports an intensity of 35 kt, making Elida
the 5th tropical storm of the 2020 eastern North Pacific season.
Even with the assistance of the ASCAT pass, it has been difficult to
track the center of the tropical storm this morning. The center of
Elida appears to have jumped somewhat northward since last night,
and further reformations of the center will be possible until the
system consolidates some more. The northward adjustment in the
position resulted in a slight adjustment to the track forecast in
that direction, but overall the tropical storm is still forecast to
move generally west-northwestward for the next several days, steered
by a mid-level ridge extending over northern Mexico and the
southwestern United States. A westward turn is likely near the end
of the forecast period as Elida weakens and low-level tradewinds
become the dominant steering mechanism. Overall the models are in
excellent agreement and confidence in the track forecast is fairly
high.
All of the statistical and regional hurricane intensity models
forecast Elida to strengthen and become a hurricane within 48 h.
Since the cyclone does not appear to have a tight inner-core yet,
only modest strengthening is forecast for the first 12 h, followed
by a faster rate after that. The extent of strengthening is still
highly uncertain, and the guidance ranges from a minimal to major
hurricane. The new NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one
and the multi-model consensus. Elida is forecast to weaken later
this week after it reaches cooler waters to the north.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0900Z 15.8N 104.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 16.8N 106.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 17.9N 108.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 18.8N 111.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 19.7N 113.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 20.6N 116.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 21.2N 119.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 21.9N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 21.5N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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