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HURRICANE DOUGLAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOUGLAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 140W 34 4 93(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
15N 140W 50 X 77(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78)
15N 140W 64 X 49(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 37(40) X(40) X(40)
20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14)
20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 1(46) X(46)
20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) X(19)
20N 151W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 1(19) X(19)
BUOY 51004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 12(42) X(42)
20N 154W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15)
20N 154W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 21(36) X(36)
HILO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10)
HILO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21)
BRADSHAW AAF 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13)
18N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) X(22)
SOUTH POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7)
SOUTH POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 1(26)
21N 156W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) 1(29)
KAILUA-KONA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 1(26)
KAHULUI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8)
21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21)
21N 158W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
BARKING SANDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12)
HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) X(27)
HANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9)
HANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 1(25)
LANAI CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22)
KAUNAKAKAI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20)
HONOLULU 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20)
JOINT BASE PHH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13)
20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17)
20N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
NIIHAU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13)
21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18)
21N 160W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)
NIHOA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
22N 164W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
NECKER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
20N 165W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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