ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2020
Due to persistent southerly vertical wind shear, Douglas has
been devoid of deep convection for nearly 24 hours, and it appears
that it will soon be a post-tropical remnant low. Satellite fix
agencies are unable to determine a data-T due to the absence of
convection, and the current intensity estimate of 35 kt is primarily
based on a recently-obtained 0726Z ASCAT pass, which also indicates
what appears to be a degraded circulation. This intensity estimate
is also supported by a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 42 kt, and a
CIRA-RAMMB estimate of 39 kt, with these winds located north of the
center.
The initial motion estimate is 275/20 kt, with Douglas moving
rapidly westward to the south and southwest of a low-level ridge.
Some increase in latitude is expected as Douglas crosses the
International Date Line in about 24 hours, with the cyclone
expected to dissipate shortly thereafter. The updated track and
intensity forecast is based on regional and global model guidance,
with little change made to the previous forecast.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 24.6N 173.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 25.1N 176.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0600Z 25.8N 180.0E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1800Z 26.5N 176.0E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Birchard
NNNN