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Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number  29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP082020
500 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2020
 
Hurricane Hunters from the Air Force's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance 
Squadron completed their final mission into Douglas a couple 
of hours ago, and the team at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center 
is extremely grateful for their unwavering support. Although the 
later passes didn't find winds as strong as the initial passes of 
the mission, the central pressure remained steady. Additionally, 
Douglas' satellite appearance has changed little since the last 
center penetration, and the initial intensity for this advisory has 
been maintained at 80 kt.   

The initial motion estimate is 290/15 kt, with Douglas primarily 
being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge centered to the north of 
the cyclone. In the upper levels, Douglas lies between a ridge to 
the east and a trough to the west, and has been hanging tough in an 
environment characterized by significant southerly vertical wind 
shear. The expectation is that this debilitating wind shear will 
persist over the cyclone for the next couple of days, with 
significant weakening occurring as the cyclone gets sheared apart. 
The increasingly shallow system is then expected to be steered 
toward the west until dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The 
updated track forecast is close to the previous, as well as most of 
the reliable dynamical model guidance. The intensity forecast also 
leans more heavily on the dynamical models, and anticipates that a 
fairly rapid rate of weakening will soon commence. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 22.9N 160.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 23.3N 163.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 23.7N 166.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 24.1N 170.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 24.5N 174.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 25.0N 178.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 25.6N 178.1E   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
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