ZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 29 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020 500 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2020 Hurricane Hunters from the Air Force's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron completed their final mission into Douglas a couple of hours ago, and the team at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center is extremely grateful for their unwavering support. Although the later passes didn't find winds as strong as the initial passes of the mission, the central pressure remained steady. Additionally, Douglas' satellite appearance has changed little since the last center penetration, and the initial intensity for this advisory has been maintained at 80 kt. The initial motion estimate is 290/15 kt, with Douglas primarily being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge centered to the north of the cyclone. In the upper levels, Douglas lies between a ridge to the east and a trough to the west, and has been hanging tough in an environment characterized by significant southerly vertical wind shear. The expectation is that this debilitating wind shear will persist over the cyclone for the next couple of days, with significant weakening occurring as the cyclone gets sheared apart. The increasingly shallow system is then expected to be steered toward the west until dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The updated track forecast is close to the previous, as well as most of the reliable dynamical model guidance. The intensity forecast also leans more heavily on the dynamical models, and anticipates that a fairly rapid rate of weakening will soon commence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 22.9N 160.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 23.3N 163.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 23.7N 166.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 24.1N 170.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 24.5N 174.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 25.0N 178.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 25.6N 178.1E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN
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