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Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082020
500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020
 
Satellite data indicate that the cyclone is strengthening.  The
system now has a small but well organized central dense overcast
with curved bands on the west side of the circulation.  All of the
satellite intensity estimates are of tropical storm strength, and
based on that data the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, making
the system Tropical Storm Douglas.
 
The tropical storm is moving west-southwestward at 9 kt.  A
mid-level ridge situated to the north of Douglas off the northern
Baja California coast should cause the storm to gradually turn
westward during the next couple of days and then west-northwestward
beyond that time.  The models are in good agreement on this
scenario, and only small changes were made to the previous
prediction.
 
Douglas is expected to be in quite favorable conditions of low
vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and warm SSTs during
the next few days.  Given these conducive environmental conditions
and the storm's improved and compact structure, steady or possibly
even rapid strengthening is possible during that time period.
After a few days, however, a combination of higher shear, slightly
cooler waters, and drier air should end the strengthening trend and
induce weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast lies near the higher
end of the guidance.  This forecast shows a faster rate of
strengthening in the short term and more weakening at the end of
the period compared to the previous forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 13.1N 121.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 12.5N 123.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 12.0N 125.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 11.9N 128.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 12.3N 130.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  23/1200Z 13.2N 133.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 14.2N 136.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 15.9N 141.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 16.6N 147.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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