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Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020
The depression has been moving over a ridge of warmer sea surface
temperatures (about 28C) over the past few hours, and a
nontrivial amount of deep convection redeveloped soon after the
issuance of the previous advisory, albeit at least 60 n mi to the
southwest of the low-level center. However, with no appreciable
change in the cyclone's structure, the initial intensity remains 25
kt in accordance with the overnight scatterometer data. The
depression is forecast to reach waters colder than 26C in 12-24
hours, which should extinguish the remaining deep convection. The
updated NHC forecast now shows the depression degenerating into a
remnant low by 24 hours, with dissipation by 48 hours. Another
scenario is that the depression could dissipate at any time if it
opens up into a trough, which is shown by most of the global model
guidance.
The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt, which is
more poleward than has been shown by the dynamical track models.
Because of this, the simpler shallow trajectory models are given a
higher contribution on this cycle, with the new NHC track forecast
ending up a bit north of the previous forecast. The depression
and its remnants are expected to gradually accelerate toward the
west-northwest or west over the next day or two until dissipation.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 18.4N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0000Z 18.2N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
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