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Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062020
900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020
 
Deep convection associated with the depression has decreased 
substantially since the last advisory, particularly during the last 
3 hours. At 00Z, microwave, visible, and IR imagery showed the 
depression had a small but well-defined center with a small area of 
deep convection west of its center. Most satellite-based intensity 
estimates at that time were 35 kt, which would typically support 
naming the system as a tropical storm. Since that time, however, it 
appears that nearly all of the deep convection has dissipated and it 
is likely that the intensity estimates would be lower if they were 
valid now. The initial intensity is therefore conservatively held at 
30 kt for this advisory, but it is certainly possible that the 
system is producing tropical-storm-force winds.

The NHC forecast is largely unchanged. The cyclone is forecast to 
move generally westward for the next day or two, steered by a 
mid-level ridge to the north and low-level easterly flow. Some 
slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but 
significant strengthening is not expected. An increase of 
southwesterly shear and cool SSTs should cause the cyclone to become 
a remnant low and then dissipate within about 3 days. The track and 
intensity guidance is all in good agreement and confidence in the 
NHC forecast is fairly high.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 17.0N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 17.2N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 17.3N 119.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 16.9N 123.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 16.0N 126.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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