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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020
Despite being over relatively cool 24 C waters, Cristina is
maintaining its strength for now. Deep convection wraps most of the
way around the center and is strongest on the south side of the
circulation. There remains a large spread in the satellite
intensity estimates that currently range from 45 kt to 65 kt. In
addition, a recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt
north of the center. Based on a compromise of all of this data, the
initial intensity is held at 60 kt.
Cristina is moving toward even cooler waters and into a
progressively drier and more stable air mass. These conditions
should cause weakening soon, and the storm is forecast to lose all
of its deep convection and become a post-tropical cyclone in about
60 hours when it will be over SSTs of around 22 C. The NHC
intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus
models and calls for steady weakening during the next several days.
Cristina is still moving west-northwestward, and it should continue
moving in that direction for the next couple of days as a mid-level
ridge remains parked over the southwestern United States. Beyond
that time, a westward motion is expected as the weak and shallow
post-tropical cyclone should be steered by the low-level trade
winds. The models remain in good agreement on this scenario, and
the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0900Z 20.4N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 20.7N 120.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 21.1N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 21.9N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 22.4N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 14/0600Z 22.9N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z 23.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0600Z 24.0N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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