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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020
Cristina's appearance suggests that the system has gotten better
organized over relatively cold waters than it ever did over warmer
waters to the south. The cyclone has a banding eye-like feature, and
cold cloud tops associated with deep convection have recently come
close to wrapping all the way around the cyclone's center. Although
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates at 00Z could justify calling
Cristina a hurricane, the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON is 55 kt, and
ASCAT data valid around 18Z had max winds of only 45 kt. The initial
intensity is therefore held at 60 kt as a compromise of the various
estimates.
Cristina is forecast to be over 24 deg C waters in about 12 h and it
would be surprising if it strengthened overnight. That said, given
its current satellite appearance and otherwise favorable surrounding
environment, I can not rule out the possibility that Cristina could
briefly become a hurricane during the next few hours. In general,
the NHC intensity forecast has not been substantially changed, and
Cristina is forecast to gradually weaken for the next few days.
Various dynamical models indicate that the tropical storm will
maintain some deep convection for another couple days, and then
become a post-tropical remnant low early next week.
The tropical storm is forecast to continue moving steadily westward
to west-northwestward for the next two to three days, steered by a
mid-level ridge extending across most of the eastern North Pacific.
After that time, the shallow remnant low should continue generally
westward, steered by low-level easterly flow. The models are in
fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is on top of the
multi-model consensus near the middle of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 20.1N 116.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 21.3N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 21.7N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 22.0N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 23.5N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0000Z 24.0N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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