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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020

Satellite images continue to show a degradation of Cristina's 
appearance, with cloud tops warming and deep convection mainly  
limited to the southeastern semicircle. The low level center is 
clearly visible, but its motion is erratic, taking a looping 
trajectory through the day. The weakening is likely due to the 
cyclone's passage over cooler waters. Objective and subjective 
intensity estimates range from 43 kt to 65 kt. For this forecast 
package, the initial intensity will be kept at 60 kt based on a 
blend of the available estimates.

The initial motion of Cristina is 285/15 kt. The synoptic scale 
guidance indicates that a mid-level ridge over the southwestern 
U.S. will strengthen over the next couple of days. As the ridge 
strengthens, Cristina is expected to gradually turn west. The 
objective aids remain relatively tightly packed. The forecast 
has been adjusted slightly north of the previous forecast and is 
close to the HCCA guidance.

It appears Cristina's opportunity to become a hurricane has 
passed as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. The objective aids 
indicate weakening over the next several days due to the cooler sea 
surface temperatures and a drier, more stable air mass along the 
forecast track. Cristina is forecast to become a remnant low by 72 
hours, though some of the models indicate this process may take a 
little longer.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/2100Z 19.8N 115.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 20.1N 117.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 20.5N 120.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 20.9N 122.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 21.2N 125.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  13/0600Z 21.6N 127.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 21.9N 130.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  14/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Kodama
 
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