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Tropical Storm CRISTINA

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020
Cristina has become better organized during the past several hours.
A curved band wraps almost completely around the center, and a
ragged eye has occasionally been apparent in satellite
images.  The cyclone is beginning to look like a hurricane, but
there is still a large spread in the latest satellite intensity
estimates, ranging from 45 to 77 kt.  In addition, a recent ASCAT
pass showed maximum winds of only 45 kt.  Based on a compromise of
all of this data, the initial intensity remains 60 kt for this
Cristina could still become a hurricane today while it remains over
waters warmer than 26 C and in low vertical wind shear conditions.
However, by tonight the storm will likely be moving over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air
mass.  The combination of these negative factors for the storm
should promote a steady weakening trend beginning tonight, and
ultimately Cristina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
in about 3 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update
of the previous one, and in line with the consensus models IVCN and
The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt.  There has
been no change to the track forecast reasoning.  A mid-level ridge
centered over the southwestern U.S. should continue to steer
Cristina to the west-northwest during the next couple of days.
Beyond that time, when Cristina becomes a weak and shallow system, a
turn to the west is expected in the low-level flow.  The track
models remain tightly clustered, and only minor changes were made
to the previous NHC forecast.
INIT  10/0900Z 18.8N 113.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  11/0600Z 20.4N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  11/1800Z 20.9N 120.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  12/0600Z 21.3N 122.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  12/1800Z 21.6N 125.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  13/0600Z 22.0N 127.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  14/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  15/0600Z 23.0N 138.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Forecaster Cangialosi