ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020
 
After the earlier convective hiatus, Cristina is now going through 
a little bit of a bursting phase with new inner-core convection 
developing just west of the center, with the latter feature showing 
up quite nicely in 0139 UTC SSMI/S microwave satellite imagery. The 
intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on satellite 
classifications of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and 57 kt and 59 kt from 
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively.
 
Cristina is moving northwestward or 305/11 kt. The strong 
subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of the tropical cyclone 
should keep Cristina moving in that general direction tonight, 
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest at about the same 
forward speed by Thursday morning. By 96 h and beyond, a rapidly 
weakening and vertically shallow Cristina should turn westward under 
the influence of brisk easterly trade wind flow. The latest NHC 
model guidance remains in strong agreement on this evolving track 
scenario, and the new track forecast closely follows the tightly 
packed consensus models, which are a little south of the previous 
advisory track.
 
Environmental and oceanic conditions are expected to remain 
conducive for strengthening during the next 36-48 h while Cristina 
remains over SSTs greater than 26 deg C. By 72 h and beyond, the 
cyclone will be moving over much cooler water characterized by SSTs 
near 22C by 96-120h, which is expected to induce steady weakening 
despite the low vertical wind shear conditions. The new NHC 
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the IVCN 
intensity consensus, with Cristina still expected to become a 
hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 16.4N 108.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 18.3N 111.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 19.2N 114.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 20.6N 119.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/0000Z 21.0N 122.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  13/0000Z 21.2N 127.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  14/0000Z 21.6N 133.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
NNNN