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Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020
 
First light satellite images show that the convective organization 
of Cristina is gradually improving, while banding features are 
developing across the northern portion of the circulation. The 
center remains underneath the northeastern side of the main area of 
convection due to moderate shear, but this shear appears to be 
diminishing. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, 
which is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from 
TAFB and SAB. 
 
Cristina turned to the northwest and slowed down to about 10 kt this 
morning. A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected to occur 
later today or tonight, and this motion is forecast to continue for 
the next few days as the cyclone is steered by a large ridge 
centered over the southwestern United States. Later in the forecast 
period, a turn to the west is expected as the weakening cyclone 
becomes steered by the low-level easterlies. The track guidance is 
tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast lies near the middle of 
the envelope. 
 
The decreasing shear over Cristina combined with warm SSTs and a 
moist air mass should allow the cyclone to intensify over the next 
couple of days. After that time, the system will cross over the 26 
C isotherm and enter into a drier and more stable atmospheric 
environment. This should cause a steady weakening trend to begin 
after 48 h. Although the forecast still shows Cristina as a tropical 
storm in 5 days, it is possible all of the deep convection would 
have dissipated by that time. The latest NHC forecast is very close 
to the intensity consensus aids. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 14.6N 106.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 15.4N 108.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 16.6N 110.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 17.6N 112.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  10/1200Z 18.5N 114.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  11/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  11/1200Z 20.2N 119.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  12/1200Z 21.0N 124.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  13/1200Z 21.5N 130.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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