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Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042020
300 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2020
 
Deep convection associated with the depression has waned since last 
night and is now limited to a small burst displaced more than 
75 n mi northeast of the cyclone's low-level center. An ASCAT-B pass 
at 0517 UTC showed max winds of only 20-25 kt, so the intensity has 
been lowered to 25 kt. The cyclone is now located over 24 deg C 
waters and substantial redevelopment or organization of convection 
is unlikely. It is therefore forecast to become a remnant low later 
today. The remnant low should then spin down over the course of the 
next couple of days until it dissipates later this week.
 
The depression has continued to move slowly northwestward, steered
by a mid-level ridge to its east. Once the cyclone becomes a remnant
low later today, weak low-level steering flow will likely cause the
system to meander for a few days until it dissipates. The NHC
forecast (both track and intensity) is mostly unchanged from the
previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 20.6N 113.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 20.9N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  01/0600Z 21.0N 113.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/1800Z 21.2N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  02/0600Z 21.6N 114.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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