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Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032020
1100 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020
 
Visible satellite imagery shows that the center of Boris is a 
little farther to the north than indicated in the previous 
advisory.  The cyclone has a good low-level circulation, but the 
associated convection is currently disorganized due to a 
combination of southerly vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air 
entrainment.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt as a blend of 
various satellite intensity estimates.  A combination of shear, dry 
mid-level air, and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to 
cause slow weakening, with the cyclone now forecast to degenerate 
to a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate completely after 60 h.  The 
new intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast 
and lies near the intensity consensus.
 
The initial motion is a little uncertain, with the best estimate 
315/6.  Boris should turn west-northwestward during the next 12 h 
or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to 
mid-level ridge.  Subsequently, the weakening cyclone is forecast 
to turn westward and west-southwestward with some increase in 
forward speed in the low-level trade wind flow.  The new official 
track forecast follows the general direction of the previous 
one, but with some adjustments from the previous forecast due 
to the more northward initial position.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 12.5N 139.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 12.7N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 12.9N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 12.7N 144.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0600Z 12.3N 146.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Beven
 
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