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Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032020
1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020
 
Deep convection associated with Boris has been pulsing the past 
several hours, but overall there has been a general decrease in 
coverage and depth of the associated thunderstorm activity. The 
initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt based on a 0525Z ASCAT-A 
pass. The combination of the entrainment of dry mid-level air and 
marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow 
weakening trend over the next 72 hours. The new NHC intensity 
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and calls for 
Boris to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h, and dissipate 
shortly after 72 h.
 
The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/07 kt. 
The forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory, 
and the new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the 
previous advisory track.  Boris is expected to move 
west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small cyclone 
remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, 
Boris is forecast to turn westward, then west-southwestward later 
in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens even further and is 
steered by the low-level trade wind flow.  The updated NHC forecast 
track is very close to the previous official track forecast, and 
lies near the southern edge of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 11.6N 138.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 11.9N 139.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 12.2N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 12.4N 141.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 12.3N 143.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  28/1800Z 12.0N 145.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/0600Z 11.7N 147.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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