ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020
Thunderstorm activity has waned significantly near the center of the
small cyclone, and is now restricted to the southwestern quadrant
due to the ingestion of a large slug of dry mid-level air from the
north and northeast. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, and is
based on continuity with the previous advisory, and satellite
current intensity estimates of T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 from TAFB and
SAB, respectively.
The small depression has been moving westward or 275/07 kt. The
cyclone is forecast by the global models to move generally
west-northwestward for the next 3 days along the southern periphery
of a deep-layer ridge. Thereafter, a weakening and more shallow
system is expected to turn toward the west and then west-southwest
after moving into the Central Pacific basin. The new NHC track
forecast is south of the previous advisory track, and lies close to
a blend of the consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and HCCA.
Despite moving through a regime of very light wind shear and over
SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 2-3 days, the depression will
skirt along the southwestern edge of an expansive region of cool,
dry air located over the mid-Pacific. The statistical SHIPS and LGEM
intensity models now show no intensification during the next 5 days,
while the global and regional models show only very modest
strengthening. The small size of the cyclone argues for at least
some strengthening since only a small increase in convection
can quickly spin up the low-level field. However, proximity to the
aforementioned cool, stable air should prevent any significant
intensification. By 72h and beyond, the unfavorable combination of
increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear, marginal SSTS, and a
drier air mass are expected to cause the tropical cyclone to
degenerate into a remnant low over the Central Pacific hurricane
basin. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than
the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus models IVCN
and HCCA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0900Z 10.6N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 10.9N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 11.4N 137.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 11.8N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 12.1N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 12.3N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 12.4N 142.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z 11.8N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 10.9N 151.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN