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Tropical Depression THREE-E

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032020
500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

The small low pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of 
the Baja California peninsula has acquired enough organized 
convection near and southwest of the center to be designated a 
tropical depression.  Thus, advisories are being initiated on 
Tropical Depression 3-E.  The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in 
agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 275/6.  A deep-layer ridge to the north of the 
cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to the 
northwest and west.  This evolution should cause the depression to 
move northwestward between 24-72 h.  After that, the cyclone should 
be weakening with the low-level trade winds becoming the main 
steering mechanism, resulting in a west-southwestward motion for the 
balance of the forecast period.  The official track forecast is near 
the various consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or 
so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical 
storm during that time.  Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind 
shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening 
trend, and most of the global models forecast dissipation near 
120 h. The forecast peak intensity of 45 kt is near the upper end 
of the intensity guidance, with the remainder of the forecast near 
the intensity consensus.  

INIT  24/1500Z 10.2N 132.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 10.5N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 11.0N 135.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 11.7N 136.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 12.6N 137.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 13.2N 138.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 13.5N 139.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  28/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
120H  29/1200Z 12.5N 148.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Forecaster Beven