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Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020
The small low pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has acquired enough organized
convection near and southwest of the center to be designated a
tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression 3-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in
agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.
The initial motion is 275/6. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the
cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to the
northwest and west. This evolution should cause the depression to
move northwestward between 24-72 h. After that, the cyclone should
be weakening with the low-level trade winds becoming the main
steering mechanism, resulting in a west-southwestward motion for the
balance of the forecast period. The official track forecast is near
the various consensus models.
Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or
so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical
storm during that time. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind
shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening
trend, and most of the global models forecast dissipation near
120 h. The forecast peak intensity of 45 kt is near the upper end
of the intensity guidance, with the remainder of the forecast near
the intensity consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 10.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 10.5N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 11.0N 135.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 11.7N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 12.6N 137.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 13.2N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 13.5N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 12.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Beven
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