ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Amanda Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022020
400 AM CDT Sun May 31 2020
 
Conventional and scatterometer satellite data indicate that the
depression has once again become better organized after a brief
hiatus a few hours ago. The intensity has been increased to 35 kt 
based on recent UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON satellite intensity 
estimates of 34 kt and 38 kt, respectively.
 
The initial motion estimate is 020/08 kt, which is based on several
passive microwave and ASCAT scatterometer fixes.  Amanda is 
embedded within the eastern periphery of a larger cyclonic gyre
centered over eastern Mexico. The cyclone is expected to remain
trapped within the larger gyre for the next few days, resulting in
a north-northeastward to northward motion today, followed by a much
slower northwestward to westward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with the remnant low possibly emerging over the Bay of Campeche on
days 2 and 3. The new forecast track is similar to the previous
advisory through 24 hours, but additional forecast track positions
were added through 72 hours due to the possibility of the system
moving over the Bay of Campeche, which could result in the formation
of a new tropical cyclone.
 
Little change in strength is expected before landfall occurs. After 
landfall, the cyclone is expected to rapidly weaken over the 
mountains of Central America.  However, the large size of the 
circulation could still produce winds of 20-25 kt over the adjacent 
waters of the eastern North Pacific, Gulf of Honduras, and the Bay 
of Campeche for the next 2-3 days.
 
The main hazards from Amanda, and the larger gyre in which the 
cyclone is embedded, are expected to be heavy rainfall and flooding. 
Amanda's slow forward motion, large size, and abundant tropical 
moisture could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides 
across portions of Central America and southern Mexico, and these 
threats will continue well after Amanda moves inland.  For 
additional information, see products issued by your national 
meteorological service.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0900Z 13.8N  90.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 15.2N  90.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  01/0600Z 17.4N  90.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  01/1800Z 18.7N  91.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  02/0600Z 19.0N  92.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  02/1800Z 18.8N  93.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  03/0600Z 18.4N  93.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
NNNN