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Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020
...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and
interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and
the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta
was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 86.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).
A northwestward motion is expected later tonight through Thursday
morning. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is forecast
to occur Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through Thursday
afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday night.
Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or
central Cuba this weekend.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected while Eta remains over land, and
Eta will likely degenerate to a remnant low or trough of low
pressure on Thursday. However, re-intensification is forecast once
the center of Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.
RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Monday morning:
Portions of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize: An additional 15 to 30
inches (380 to 760 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches
(1000 mm) in eastern Honduras.
Portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador and Costa Rica: An additional 15
to 20 inches (380 to 510 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40
inches (1000 mm) in eastern Nicaragua.
Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated
maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm).
Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals totals of 15 inches (380 mm).
The Cayman Islands into western Cuba: 10 to 25 inches (255 to 635
mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).
This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, southern
Haiti, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.