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Tropical Storm Eta Special Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020
This special advisory is being issued to update the first 36 h of
the intensity forecast of Eta. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft found a better defined center north of the Cayman
Islands with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an initial
intensity of 50 kt, along with a central pressure of 994 mb. The
updated intensity forecast shows a little more intensification
during the first 12 h, although it is unclear how much
intensification may occur due to strong vertical shear and
interaction with a developing upper-level low nearby.
No changes were made to the forecast track. The first 36 h of the
wind radii were adjusted for the new intensity forecast.
Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 100
PM EST (1800 UTC) intermediate advisory.
1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions
of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and
southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-
threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash
and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands,
Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida.
2. Tropical storm conditions are expected today and Sunday in
portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected by late Sunday in the
Florida Keys and along portions of the southeast Florida coast,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are possible elsewhere in portions of southern and
central Florida beginning Sunday night, where a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect. Additional Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be
needed later today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1800Z 20.0N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH