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Tropical Depression Wilfred Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL232020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020
 
Wilfred is not a healthy tropical cyclone as strong vertical shear 
from the combination of outflow from Hurricane Teddy as well as 
winds on the southern side of a nearby upper-level trough are 
impinging upon the system.  While there is substantial deep 
convection, it is more linear rather than curved in appearance and 
it may be more a product of forcing from the upper-level trough 
rather than the tropical cyclone itself.  Dvorak classifications 
from SAB and TAFB have reduced some at 18Z, though the intensity 
remains a perhaps generous 30 kt.
 
The tropical cyclone continues to move west-northwest at a fast 17 
kt clip. As the system slowly winds down, it will be increasingly 
steered by the low-level flow indicating a slower movement toward 
the west or west-northwest until dissipation.  The new track 
forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory, except for 
the final 60 hr point that does show a turn toward the northwest 
based upon the TVCN and HCCA track consensus techniques.
 
Strong shear and dry mid-level humidities should continue to cause 
a reduction in the deep convection and lead to the system becoming 
a remnant low in a day or two followed shortly thereafter by 
dissipation.   Most statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is 
in agreement.  A plausible alternate scenario is that the small 
circulation opens up into a trough and dissipation occurs sooner 
than indicated below.  It is worth noting that the ECMWF model does 
suggest the possibility of reformation of the system farther north 
by day three.  However, this scenario is discounted at this time.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/2100Z 15.9N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  21/0600Z 16.3N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  21/1800Z 16.5N  49.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  22/0600Z 16.5N  50.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/1800Z 16.8N  51.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  23/0600Z 17.8N  52.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATED
 72H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Landsea
 
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