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HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192020
0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS AND 
METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING BETWEEN PORT FOURCHON AND THE MOUTH OF THE 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE 
FLORIDA
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE
* MOBILE BAY
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE NAVARRE FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA...
INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS AND METROPOLITAN
NEW ORLEANS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING 
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE 
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. 
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT 
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS 
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER 
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  88.1W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  30SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 110SE 150SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  88.1W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  88.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.2N  88.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.9N  88.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.6N  88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.4N  87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.2N  86.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 32.8N  84.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 33.2N  81.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N  88.1W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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