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HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192020
0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN
CITY...LOUISIANA...HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE
* MOBILE BAY
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS
A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  87.6W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  30SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 150SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N  87.6W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N  87.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.1N  88.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.6N  88.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.4N  88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.3N  87.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N  86.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.7N  84.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 33.1N  82.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N  87.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 
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