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BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
200 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020
 
...PAULETTE STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND RAIN CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 64.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Hurricane Warning 
for Bermuda with a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are 
occurring in the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located 
near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Paulette is moving 
toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general 
motion should continue into the early evening hours.  A turn toward 
the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward 
the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday night 
through Thursday. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (170 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is likely through 
Tuesday night as Paulette accelerates northeastward to east- 
northeastward. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions on Bermuda should persist into the 
mid to late afternoon hours.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves into this afternoon.
 
RAIN:  Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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