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Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020
 
A 0533 UTC AMSR2 overpass on Paulette already reveals structural
changes associated with the approaching mid-latitude baroclinic
zone.  The microwave image and GOES-16 mid- to upper-level water
vapor imagery show drier more stable air beginning to intrude into 
the western portion of the cyclone.  Additionally, Paulette's 
rain shield is more confined to the northern half of the system, 
while drying out in the southern semi-circle.  Only fragments 
of the eyewall remain in that particular area.  The initial 
intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory and is supported by 
the subjective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers from TAFB and 
SAB.  Although Paulette is beginning to lose some of its tropical 
characteristics, the cyclone still has a small window of opportunity 
to strengthen while it continues moving over warm sea surface 
temperatures during the next 12-18 hrs.  Afterward, the water 
temperature drop drastically to less than 20C while Paulette becomes 
more involved with the aforementioned baroclinic system.  As a 
result, the cyclone should weaken rather rapidly and complete its 
extratropical transition on Thursday, and this is based on an 
agreement of the large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical 
guidance.
 
The aforementioned microwave pass indicated that the center of
circulation was a bit west-southwest of the previous position and
therefore the initial estimated motion is believed to be 
northeastward, or 055/25 kt. Paulette is forecast to accelerate 
further and turn east-northeastward later tonight and continuing 
through Wednesday night, then slow down a bit on Thursday.  Toward 
the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn east- 
southeastward to south-southeastward as it moves within the 
western peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low 
to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just a little 
faster than the previous one through 60 hours and lies closer to the 
HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model and is also similar to the 
GFEX ECMWF/FV3 simple consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 38.3N  57.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 40.1N  53.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 42.7N  46.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 45.0N  40.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 46.2N  35.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  18/0000Z 45.6N  33.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  18/1200Z 43.9N  33.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  19/1200Z 39.9N  32.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  20/1200Z 37.0N  31.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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