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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162020
1500 UTC TUE SEP 01 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-HONDURAS
BORDER...INCLUDING ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF
HONDURAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHERN HONDURAS
* ROATAN ISLAND AND THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  77.5W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..70NE   0SE   0SW 70NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  77.5W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  76.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 16.4N  79.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.6N  82.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 16.7N  85.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  30SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.8N  87.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 16.5N  89.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.7N  91.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N  77.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 01/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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