ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162020
1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Nana is weakening rapidly as it 
crosses northern Guatemala.  There are no available observations 
near the center, so the initial intensity estimate of 40 kt is 
rather uncertain.  Continued weakening is expected, and Nana is 
likely to be a remnant low pressure area by the time it reaches the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec in about 24 h.  The global models continue to 
forecast conditions that are not conducive for Nana to 
re-intensify, so the intensity forecast calls for the remnant low 
to dissipate by 48 h even though it will be over water.

The initial motion is 260/13 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the 
north of Nana should keep it moving on a west to west-southwestward 
track during the remainder of the cyclone's life.  The new official 
forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the 
various consensus models,
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions will continue near the center of Nana 
for a few more hours.
 
2. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 3 to 6
inches could result in flash flooding in Guatemala and portions of 
southeastern Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 16.4N  90.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 16.0N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/1200Z 15.4N  94.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0000Z 14.9N  96.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NNNN