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Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122020
500 PM AST Sat Aug 15 2020
 
Kyle has taken on a decidedly less tropical appearance. Its
circulation has become very elongated and the nearest deep
convection is displaced 100 n mi to the east of the surface center.
If current trends continue, Kyle could become post-tropical later
tonight. The cyclone is still moving over the warm waters of the
Gulf Stream so redevelopment of convection near the center is not
out of the question just yet and NHC will continue advisories for
the moment. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on an earlier
ship report, but late-arriving scatterometer data from this morning
indicated that this could be a little generous.
 
Whether it is tropical or post-tropical, Kyle is forecast to 
continue moving quickly east-northeastward to eastward for the next 
day or two until it is absorbed into a larger extratropical low. 
Although Kyle has another 12 to 24 hours of warm waters along its 
forecast track, it looks unlikely that it will be able to take 
advantage of it due to otherwise hostile conditions. Slight 
fluctuations in strength are still possible during the next day or 
two, but no further intensification is explicitly forecast and 
gradual weakening should begin by late Sunday. Aside from the slight 
adjustment to show no further strengthening overnight, no 
substantial changes were made to the NHC track or intensity 
forecast, which are based on the multi-model consensus aids TVCA 
and IVCN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 39.4N  63.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 40.1N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  16/1800Z 40.8N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  17/0600Z 41.3N  51.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  17/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
 
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