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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092020
1500 UTC WED JUL 29 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS AS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. THE
GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO CAUCEDO EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO AND
THEN WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST TO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI BORDER
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTHERN HAITI BORDER EASTWARD TO
CABO CAUCEDO
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR
 
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  63.7W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  75 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......240NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..400NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  63.7W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  62.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.9N  66.4W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...210NE   0SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.5N  69.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE  40SE   0SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 19.9N  73.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE  40SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 21.4N  76.0W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE  40SE   0SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 22.7N  78.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...140NE  60SE  30SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 23.8N  80.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE  60SE  30SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 26.3N  82.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 29.0N  83.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N  63.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 29/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 
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