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Tropical Storm Gonzalo Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020
200 PM AST Fri Jul 24 2020
...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING GONZALO...
...GONZALO EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ON SATURDAY...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.76 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
The government of Barbados has canceled the Hurricane Watch for
Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* St. Lucia
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Grenada and its dependencies
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 9.9 North, longitude 54.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward
the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the
southern Windward Islands tonight and then move across the islands
on Saturday and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.
The Hurricane Hunter aircraft has not yet completed its survey of
Gonzalo, but preliminary data indicate that maximum sustained winds
are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. There is considerable
uncertainty in the intensity forecast, but some strengthening is
possible during the next day or so before Gonzalo reaches the
southern Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves
into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by
the middle of next week.
Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Data from the reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up
to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.
The most recent minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter plane was 1008 mb (29.76 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Gonzalo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the Tropical Storm Warning area on Saturday.
RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in
Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night. Gonzalo is
also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern
Venezuela. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead
to life-threatening flash floods.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.