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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020
 
...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...21.4N 89.7W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for areas outside the 
Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the mouth of 
the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi, including Lake
Borgne.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf of
Mexico coast from east of Morgan City, Louisiana to the
Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line.
 
The Storm Surge Watch has been extended west of Grand Isle to east
of Morgan City Louisiana.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne
 
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Arepika Florida
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi
River
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for
* Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County
Florida line
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening 
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, 
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction 
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm 
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a 
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas 
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from 
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.  
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local 
officials.
 
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 89.7 West. Cristobal is
moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.  On the
forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move over the central 
Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and be near the northern Gulf of 
Mexico coast on Sunday.  Cristobal's center is then forecast to move 
inland across Louisiana late Sunday and Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Weakening 
will begin once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday and Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) 
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake
Borgne...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs MS to Indian Pass FL including Mobile Bay and 
Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft
Indian Pass FL to Aripeka FL...2-4 ft
Aripeka FL to Marco Island FL including Tampa Bay...1-3 ft
Morgan City LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the
east of the center.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions
of the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Yucatan Peninsula
during the next few hours.  Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf
Coast beginning late Saturday night.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area on Sunday.
 
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations:
 
Through Wednesday morning, for portions of the eastern and central
Gulf Coast and the lower Mississippi Valley, rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, are forecast.
Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central
Gulf Coast.  Farther north across the mid-Mississippi Valley,
rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches,
are expected.  This degree of rainfall is expected to lead to flash
flooding, and widespread flooding on smaller streams is possible 
across the mid-Mississippi Valley.
 
Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 4
to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.
 
Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco and Oaxaca...Additional 4
to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 12 inches.
 
Southern Guatemala, coastal portions of Chiapas, and El
Salvador...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm total amounts of
35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
 
Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.
 
Rainfall across Southeast Mexico and northern Central America would
continue the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the
northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg
 
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